Kalshi traders see higher gas prices lasting through election day

Kalshi traders see higher gas prices lasting through election day

Motorists purchase gas at a station on June 09, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

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WTI Crude 5-day chart.

On Thursday, the national average of gas prices was at $3.84, according to AAA, up 5 cents from the day prior. The rise comes as U.S. oil prices rose as high as $75 per barrel on Wednesday, up from around $68 per barrel on Monday. However, WTI eased to below $72 per barrel on Thursday. 

While traders on Kalshi think gas prices will remain higher for longer, they also don’t see them returning to new highs. They give just a 43% chance gas prices cross $4.60 this year, although that’s up from about a one-in-three chance before the U.S. and Iran began hostilities again. 

The high for gas prices in 2026 was on May 21, when the average hit $4.56. Before the war with Iran began, the national average for U.S. gas prices was below $3 per gallon. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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