{"id":1279,"date":"2025-06-27T04:02:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T04:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/home-prices-fell-more-than-expected-in-april\/"},"modified":"2025-06-27T04:02:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T04:02:09","slug":"home-prices-fell-more-than-expected-in-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/home-prices-fell-more-than-expected-in-april\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div>\n<p data-start=\"173\" data-end=\"401\">Both the FHFA and Case\u2011Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.\u00a0 If we don&#8217;t, they were down 0.4% from March.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"403\" data-end=\"580\"><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"587\" data-end=\"640\">FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"743\" data-end=\"972\">Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (\u22121.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%).<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"974\" data-end=\"1161\">The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum\u2014not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April&#8217;s declines to some extent.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1163\" data-end=\"1166\"\/>\n<h3 data-start=\"1168\" data-end=\"1212\">Case\u2011Shiller National Index (unadjusted)<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1214\" data-end=\"1321\">&#13;<\/p>\n<li data-start=\"1214\" data-end=\"1263\">&#13;\n<p data-start=\"1216\" data-end=\"1263\">YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March<\/p>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li data-start=\"1264\" data-end=\"1284\">&#13;\n<p data-start=\"1266\" data-end=\"1284\">MoM (raw): +0.6%<\/p>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li data-start=\"1285\" data-end=\"1321\">&#13;\n<p data-start=\"1287\" data-end=\"1321\">MoM (seasonally adjusted): \u22120.4%<\/p>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1323\" data-end=\"1426\">This marks the smallest annual national gain since mid\u20112023\u2014further evidence of continued deceleration.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1323\" data-end=\"1426\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/a.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/assets\/685af99a782da3c20a32648a\/685af99a782da3c20a32648a.png\" width=\"570\" height=\"482\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1428\" data-end=\"1431\"\/>\n<h3 data-start=\"1433\" data-end=\"1488\">Seasonally Adjusted Comparison Table: FHFA vs Case\u2011Shiller (April 2025)<\/h3>\n<div class=\"_tableContainer_16hzy_1\">\n<div class=\"_tableWrapper_16hzy_14 group flex w-fit flex-col-reverse\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<table data-start=\"1490\" data-end=\"1735\" class=\"w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)\">&#13;<\/p>\n<thead data-start=\"1490\" data-end=\"1551\">&#13;<\/p>\n<tr data-start=\"1490\" data-end=\"1551\">&#13;<\/p>\n<th data-start=\"1490\" data-end=\"1523\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Index<\/th>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<th data-start=\"1523\" data-end=\"1536\" data-col-size=\"sm\">MoM (SA)<\/th>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<th data-start=\"1536\" data-end=\"1551\" data-col-size=\"sm\">YoY<\/th>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/thead>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tbody data-start=\"1613\" data-end=\"1735\">&#13;<\/p>\n<tr data-start=\"1613\" data-end=\"1673\">&#13;<\/p>\n<td data-start=\"1613\" data-end=\"1645\" data-col-size=\"sm\">FHFA HPI\u00a0<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1645\" data-end=\"1658\">\u22120.4%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1658\" data-end=\"1673\">+3.0%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<tr data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1735\">&#13;<\/p>\n<td data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1706\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Case\u2011Shiller\u00a0<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1706\" data-end=\"1722\">\u22120.4%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1722\" data-end=\"1735\">+2.7%<\/td>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tr>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/tbody>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr data-start=\"1967\" data-end=\"1970\"\/>\n<h3 data-start=\"1972\" data-end=\"2003\">Seasonal Adjustment Matters<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2005\" data-end=\"2177\">Just like last month, raw Case\u2011Shiller data (unadjusted) can mask underlying weakness evident once seasonal factors are stripped out\u2014and we\u2019re seeing that again this month.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2179\" data-end=\"2182\"\/>\n<h3 data-start=\"2184\" data-end=\"2216\">Longer\u2011Term View: YoY Trends<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2218\" data-end=\"2279\">Both indices indicate that home price growth is decelerating:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2409\" data-end=\"2538\">Seasonally adjusted Case\u2011Shiller is already in negative territory MoM\u2014marking limited, but meaningful cooling across metro areas.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2540\" data-end=\"2543\"\/>\n<h3 data-start=\"2545\" data-end=\"2560\">Bottom Line<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2562\" data-end=\"2841\">Home prices continue to rise YoY, but growth has clearly slowed (and, in April, backtracked a bit). The first negative MoM for seasonally adjusted Case\u2011Shiller since early\u20112023 highlights early signals of market softening.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2843\" data-end=\"3105\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">With mortgage rates holding steady in the upper 6% range and inventory slightly elevated, it would not be a surprise to see a similar trend continue in coming months.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Both the FHFA and Case\u2011Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.\u00a0 If we don&#8217;t, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1280,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[679,1052,1051,259,260],"class_list":["post-1279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-loan","tag-april","tag-expected","tag-fell","tag-home","tag-prices"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1279\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1280"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}