{"id":1693,"date":"2025-09-29T18:34:22","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:34:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/odds-of-a-government-shutdown-rise-to-70-in-prediction-markets\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T18:34:22","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:34:22","slug":"odds-of-a-government-shutdown-rise-to-70-in-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/odds-of-a-government-shutdown-rise-to-70-in-prediction-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108205159\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>A stop sign is seen at a security checkpoint at the US Capitol in Washington, DC on March 24, 2019. <\/p>\n<p>Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government\u00a0will shut down\u00a0on Wednesday, reflecting growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a last-minute deal to keep agencies funded.<\/p>\n<p>Users on Kalshi and Polymarket increased their bets on a government closure after the Labor Department said it won\u2019t release Friday\u2019s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in case of a shutdown. Over the weekend, the odds were at around 50%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed InlineImage-inlineInfographic\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108205173\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper InlineImage-wrapperNoCaption\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imagePlaceholder\" style=\"padding-bottom:58.47953216374269%\">\n<div><button class=\"InlineImage-closeEnlargedImage\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"#002F6C\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" data-analytic-id=\"expand-icon\" class=\"InlineImage-background\"><title>Zoom In Icon<\/title><desc>Arrows pointing outwards<\/desc><circle cx=\"10\" cy=\"10\" r=\"10\" fill=\"white\" stroke=\"#002F6C\"\/><path d=\"M9.20185 10.7982C8.96049 10.5568 8.57037 10.5568 8.32901 10.7982L5.67901 13.4482V11.2346C5.67901 10.8938 5.40308 10.6173 5.06173 10.6173C4.72037 10.6173 4.44444 10.8938 4.44444 11.2346V14.9383C4.44444 15.279 4.72037 15.5556 5.06173 15.5556H8.76543C9.10679 15.5556 9.38271 15.279 9.38271 14.9383C9.38271 14.5975 9.10679 14.321 8.76543 14.321H6.55185L9.20185 11.671C9.44321 11.4296 9.44321 11.0395 9.20185 10.7982ZM14.9383 4.44446H11.2346C10.8932 4.44446 10.6173 4.721 10.6173 5.06174C10.6173 5.40248 10.8932 5.67903 11.2346 5.67903H13.4481L10.7981 8.32903C10.5568 8.57038 10.5568 8.96051 10.7981 9.20187C10.9185 9.32224 11.0765 9.38273 11.2346 9.38273C11.3926 9.38273 11.5506 9.32224 11.671 9.20187L14.321 6.55187V8.76545C14.321 9.10619 14.5969 9.38273 14.9383 9.38273C15.2796 9.38273 15.5556 9.10619 15.5556 8.76545V5.06174C15.5556 4.721 15.2796 4.44446 14.9383 4.44446Z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The elevated odds underscore deepening dysfunction in Congress, where disputes over spending levels escalated. While Democrats want the funding bill to include extensions to Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, Republican leaders are saying that debate\u00a0should wait\u00a0until after a shutdown is averted.<\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump is expected to meet with the top four congressional leaders Monday after abruptly canceling a meeting with Democratic leadership last week.<\/p>\n<p>The Trump administration\u00a0last week told federal agencies\u00a0to begin preparing for mass firings if Congress does not agree to a deal to avert a shutdown. If the White House follows through on its threat, it would mark a break from precedent. In past shutdowns, federal employees have been furloughed but not permanently laid off. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A stop sign is seen at a security checkpoint at the US Capitol in Washington, DC on March 24, 2019. Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government\u00a0will shut down\u00a0on Wednesday, reflecting growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a last-minute deal to keep [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[363,262,1619,1620,366,1612],"class_list":["post-1693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-loan","tag-government","tag-markets","tag-odds","tag-prediction","tag-rise","tag-shutdown"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}