{"id":1739,"date":"2025-10-01T17:53:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T17:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/prediction-markets-see-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-two-weeks\/"},"modified":"2025-10-01T17:53:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T17:53:07","slug":"prediction-markets-see-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-two-weeks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/prediction-markets-see-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-two-weeks\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108206275\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>A view of the U.S. Capitol is seen at sunset on September 30, 2025, in Washington, DC.      <\/p>\n<p>Mehmet Eser | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October.<\/p>\n<p>On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed InlineImage-inlineInfographic\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108206319\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper InlineImage-wrapperNoCaption\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imagePlaceholder\" style=\"padding-bottom:53.76344086021505%\">\n<div><button class=\"InlineImage-closeEnlargedImage\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"#002F6C\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" data-analytic-id=\"expand-icon\" class=\"InlineImage-background\"><title>Zoom In Icon<\/title><desc>Arrows pointing outwards<\/desc><circle cx=\"10\" cy=\"10\" r=\"10\" fill=\"white\" stroke=\"#002F6C\"\/><path d=\"M9.20185 10.7982C8.96049 10.5568 8.57037 10.5568 8.32901 10.7982L5.67901 13.4482V11.2346C5.67901 10.8938 5.40308 10.6173 5.06173 10.6173C4.72037 10.6173 4.44444 10.8938 4.44444 11.2346V14.9383C4.44444 15.279 4.72037 15.5556 5.06173 15.5556H8.76543C9.10679 15.5556 9.38271 15.279 9.38271 14.9383C9.38271 14.5975 9.10679 14.321 8.76543 14.321H6.55185L9.20185 11.671C9.44321 11.4296 9.44321 11.0395 9.20185 10.7982ZM14.9383 4.44446H11.2346C10.8932 4.44446 10.6173 4.721 10.6173 5.06174C10.6173 5.40248 10.8932 5.67903 11.2346 5.67903H13.4481L10.7981 8.32903C10.5568 8.57038 10.5568 8.96051 10.7981 9.20187C10.9185 9.32224 11.0765 9.38273 11.2346 9.38273C11.3926 9.38273 11.5506 9.32224 11.671 9.20187L14.321 6.55187V8.76545C14.321 9.10619 14.5969 9.38273 14.9383 9.38273C15.2796 9.38273 15.5556 9.10619 15.5556 8.76545V5.06174C15.5556 4.721 15.2796 4.44446 14.9383 4.44446Z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won&#8217;t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal in the coming days, on Oct. 3-5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed InlineImage-inlineInfographic\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108206320\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper InlineImage-wrapperNoCaption\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imagePlaceholder\" style=\"padding-bottom:51.54639175257733%\">\n<div><button class=\"InlineImage-closeEnlargedImage\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"#002F6C\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" data-analytic-id=\"expand-icon\" class=\"InlineImage-background\"><title>Zoom In Icon<\/title><desc>Arrows pointing outwards<\/desc><circle cx=\"10\" cy=\"10\" r=\"10\" fill=\"white\" stroke=\"#002F6C\"\/><path d=\"M9.20185 10.7982C8.96049 10.5568 8.57037 10.5568 8.32901 10.7982L5.67901 13.4482V11.2346C5.67901 10.8938 5.40308 10.6173 5.06173 10.6173C4.72037 10.6173 4.44444 10.8938 4.44444 11.2346V14.9383C4.44444 15.279 4.72037 15.5556 5.06173 15.5556H8.76543C9.10679 15.5556 9.38271 15.279 9.38271 14.9383C9.38271 14.5975 9.10679 14.321 8.76543 14.321H6.55185L9.20185 11.671C9.44321 11.4296 9.44321 11.0395 9.20185 10.7982ZM14.9383 4.44446H11.2346C10.8932 4.44446 10.6173 4.721 10.6173 5.06174C10.6173 5.40248 10.8932 5.67903 11.2346 5.67903H13.4481L10.7981 8.32903C10.5568 8.57038 10.5568 8.96051 10.7981 9.20187C10.9185 9.32224 11.0765 9.38273 11.2346 9.38273C11.3926 9.38273 11.5506 9.32224 11.671 9.20187L14.321 6.55187V8.76545C14.321 9.10619 14.5969 9.38273 14.9383 9.38273C15.2796 9.38273 15.5556 9.10619 15.5556 8.76545V5.06174C15.5556 4.721 15.2796 4.44446 14.9383 4.44446Z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The full shutdown began early Wednesday morning after top Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded. It sets the stage for the\u00a0furlough\u00a0of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the shuttering of a slew of key programs and services.<\/p>\n<p>The length of a government closure matters as\u00a0a longer-than-normal stoppage could weigh on an already fragile economy and put pressure on a stock market near record highs.<\/p>\n<p>Government shutdowns on average last about 14 days, based on data from Bank of America going back to 1990. While the\u00a0S&amp;P 500\u00a0has\u00a0averaged a 1% increase\u00a0during these events, a prolonged closure this time could rattle markets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A view of the U.S. Capitol is seen at sunset on September 30, 2025, in Washington, DC. Mehmet Eser | Afp | Getty Images Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[363,1683,262,1620,1612,177],"class_list":["post-1739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-loan","tag-government","tag-lasting","tag-markets","tag-prediction","tag-shutdown","tag-weeks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}