{"id":3847,"date":"2026-05-27T19:13:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T19:13:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/traders-are-skeptical-of-iran-timeline-for-strait-of-hormuz-reopening\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T19:13:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T19:13:32","slug":"traders-are-skeptical-of-iran-timeline-for-strait-of-hormuz-reopening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/traders-are-skeptical-of-iran-timeline-for-strait-of-hormuz-reopening\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108301541\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas, Iran, May 4, 2026. <\/p>\n<p>Amirhosein Khorgooi | ISNA | WANA | Via Reuters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Iran thinks it can get the Strait of Hormuz to its prewar status within one month of a peace deal with the U.S. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are more skeptical.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>They place just a 38% chance that traffic flows through the strait will return to normal by July 1. The contract defines normal flows as the seven-day moving average of transit through the strait crossing 60 based on data from IMF PortWatch.<\/p>\n<p>That level, though, is higher than the roughly 32% chance that traders gave of that happening before the new reports Wednesday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Reuters cited Iranian state television, which said it had a draft framework of a memorandum of understanding with the U.S., where the detail was learned. The White House denied the existence of any framework with Iran.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Traders are more confident that flows will return to normal by Aug. 1. They put 60% odds on it happening, higher than the 50-50 chance they had before the reports.<\/p>\n<p>However, all of these odds are lower than chances traders had over the weekend, when there appeared to be a potential imminent announcement of a deal between the two countries. Odds that traffic in the strait returned to normal by July were as high as 50% on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p><em>Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas, Iran, May 4, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi | ISNA | WANA | Via Reuters Iran thinks it can get the Strait of Hormuz to its prewar status within one month of a peace deal with the U.S. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are more skeptical.\u00a0 They [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[2968,2954,3456,3454,2967,3455,1768],"class_list":["post-3847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-loan","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-reopening","tag-skeptical","tag-strait","tag-timeline","tag-traders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3847","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3847\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}