{"id":575,"date":"2025-01-18T10:14:17","date_gmt":"2025-01-18T10:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/homebuilder-confidence-consolidation-continues\/"},"modified":"2025-01-18T10:14:17","modified_gmt":"2025-01-18T10:14:17","slug":"homebuilder-confidence-consolidation-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/homebuilder-confidence-consolidation-continues\/","title":{"rendered":"Homebuilder Confidence Consolidation Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div>\n<p>While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January&#8217;s homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index or <strong>HMI<\/strong>), the type of movement we&#8217;ve seen in the past 2 years is better characterized as &#8220;incidental&#8221; in the bigger picture.<\/p>\n<p>As with most housing-related metrics, HMI plummeted in 2022 as interest rates skyrocketed.\u00a0 It&#8217;s been broadly sideways ever since with the swings between highs and lows getting smaller and smaller.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>In market jargon, this is a textbook example of &#8220;consolidation&#8221;&#8211;something that can signal an eventual reversal back toward higher levels or a renewed slide to lower lows.\u00a0 Absent another catastrophic episode like the Great Financial Crisis, it&#8217;s not clear what would make builders feel incrementally more gloomy than the post-pandemic lows.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As such, this consolidation is widely viewed as representing some sort of lower boundary.\u00a0 Time is the key variable, and one that&#8217;s likely to be determined by economic factors such as interest rates and inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Other highlights from this month&#8217;s NAHB data:<\/p>\n<ul>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>30% of builders lowered prices in January, which is in line with the average of the past 6 months<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>Average price reduction: 5%, unchanged from last month<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>Sales incentives were used in 61% of transactions, also in line with norms<\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ul>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While it would be technically accurate to point out a slight increase in January&#8217;s homebuilder confidence (officially the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index or HMI), the type of movement we&#8217;ve seen in the past 2 years is better characterized as &#8220;incidental&#8221; in the bigger picture. As with most housing-related metrics, HMI plummeted in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[156,157,158,155],"class_list":["post-575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-loan","tag-confidence","tag-consolidation","tag-continues","tag-homebuilder"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/finzexpert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}