Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025.
FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter. On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December, suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more granular movement), appreciation has recovered from the early 2025 dip and is back in a normal pre-pandemic range.
State- and regional-level data underscore the ongoing divergence. House prices rose in 41 states over the past year, led by North Dakota (+6.4%), Delaware (+6.3%), Illinois (+6.1%), Wisconsin (+5.7%), and Michigan (+5.5%). Florida posted the largest annual decline (-2.7%). Among census divisions, the East North Central region led with a 5.0% annual gain, while the Mountain division recorded a slight decline (-0.2%).
The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.3% year-over-year gain in December, down slightly from 1.4% previously and marking the weakest full-year performance since 2011. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.4% month-over-month. The 20-City Composite showed a 1.4% annual gain, unchanged from the prior month, and increased 0.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Case-Shiller’s full-year data reveal a clear split: prices rose 2.6% in the first half of 2025 but declined 1.3% in the second half, with all 20 tracked metros posting negative returns in the back half of the year. Chicago (+5.3%), New York (+5.1%), and Cleveland (+4.0%) led annual gains, while Tampa (-2.9%), Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.5%) finished the year in negative territory. Inflation outpaced home price growth in 2025, eroding real home values and marking a notable shift from the prior decade’s trend of strong real appreciation.
FHFA House Price Index
- YoY (Q4 2025): +1.8%.
- QoQ (Q4 vs Q3): +0.8%.
- December MoM (SA): +0.1%.
S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller Indices
- U.S. National YoY: +1.3%.
- 20-City Composite YoY: +1.4%.
- National MoM (SA): +0.4%.
- 20-City MoM (SA): +0.5%.
